Blog September 18, 2023

Market Update – September 2023

The real estate market this summer has been a waiting game. Home sellers are waiting for mortgage interest rates to come down so they can justify moving; buyers are waiting for more homes to come on the market so they can achieve their dreams of home ownership; mortgage lenders are waiting for the Federal Reserve to stop raising the rates; and real estate agents are waiting for a busier fall season. Here is the market update for Septembr 2023.

Statistics and What it Means

Using statistics from MarketStats by ShowingTime, we looked at 10 counties in Northern Virginia – Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fauquier, Loudoun, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William. Here are the highlights for Northern Virginia in general, Prince William, and Loudoun counties.

The median sale price for a home in Northern Virginia is now $651,000, which is about the same it was the month before (at $650,000). This is up 9% from this time last year.

At the end of August 2023, there were 2,640 homes sold. This is up 6% from the previous month and down 15% from last year. The number of Days on Market for Northern Virginia is now 16 days, up 3 days from the previous month and down from 19 days this time last year.

Inventory continues to be low with many home owners hesitant to sell their homes with no place to go. They are unwilling to give up their 3% mortgage interest rate to buy at 7%, no matter the profit margin. Still inventory appears to be improving. There are 2,640 homes for sale, which is a 6% increase from the previous month but down a whopping 42% from this time last year.


Bright MLS Buyer Demand Index

According to Bright MLS Home Demand Index, buyer demand in the Washington Metro Area (which includes Northern Virginia) remains “Slow”, the same as the previous month. The Bright MLS | T3 Home Demand Index measures and tracks consumer and real estate professional behavior related to shopping for real estate by looking at metrics such as views of homes online and in-person showings. Ratings are categorized into 5 score points: Limited (under 70 points), Slow (70-89), Steady (90-109), Moderate (110-129), and High demand (over 130).

This month. the highest ranking areas in Northern Virginia are: MODERATE DEMAND in Arlington (126), Alexandria (119), STEADY in Prince William County (103), Manassas City (100), and SLOW in Stafford County (81). Loudoun County buyer demand was recorded as LIMITED (59).

What the Experts are Seeing

The good news in this Market Update for September 2023 is that home prices seem to be remaining constant though interest rates remain elevated. The Month’s Supply of inventory of homes has gone from 0.97 from 1. Month’s Supply refers to how many months it will take to sell all the current homes currently on the market. Most consider a balanced market, where buyers and sellers are on the same playing field, to be about 3-6 months supply.


Mortgage Interest Rates

This is the new normal for now. The annual percentage rate on 30-year conventional mortgages hovers around 7.3%. This is 3 basis points higher from the previous week and also up 172 basis points from last year. The latest Consumer Price Index figures (used to measure inflation) were announced in June to be at 3%. This percentage shows change over time in the prices for a basket of consumer goods. The Federal Reserve has stated that they want to see the inflation figure down to 2%. Being just 1% off of the target is good news for everyone. Many experts are hopeful that the inflation rate of 2% will be achieved soon. When this happens, the Federal Reserve can then halt raising the central bank’s rates. This will result in lower interest rates for everyone.

Advice to Sellers

Homeowners are still enjoying low available inventory/competition, which helps them get above asking prices on the sale of their homes. It’s seems this will stay the same for now. Home pricing and good condition remain crucial ingredients to ensure a smooth sale. It also appears inventory levels are beginning to increase. Still, the real estate market remains as strong as ever.

Advice to Buyers

For the home shopper, the mortgage interest rate around 7.4% is the new norm. Most agree that Northern Virginia has a very strong real estate market grounded in its proximity to Washington DC, a strong market, great schools, and endless amenities. This means that home owners will see financial gains the longer they own a home in the area. As a reminder, those who own their home have a median net worth 40 times that of renters.

Bottom Line

The best is yet to come.

Questions/Concerns? Please contact me.

Also feel free to compare this update with last month’s Market Update – August 2023.