Market Update – November 2023

The current real estate market in Northern Virginia continues to be steady. Inventory levels are lower than normal and this is keep home prices high. Mortgage interest rates remain around 7.5% and it appears that this is the new normal. This is just some of the indicators of this Market Update for November 2023.

Statistics and What it Means

Using statistics from MarketStats by ShowingTime, we looked at 10 counties in Northern Virginia – Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fauquier, Loudoun, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William. Here are the highlights for Northern Virginia in general, Prince William, and Loudoun counties.

The median sale price for a home in Northern Virginia is now $619,000, which is the same as last month and up 3% from this time last year when the median sold price was $599,900.

At the end of October 2023, there were 2,078 homes sold in Northern Virginia. This is up about 3% from last month and down 9% from last year. So this illustrates the low inventory we’re currently experiencing compared to last year.

The number of Days on Market for Northern Virginia is now 17 days, the same it was last month and down from 8 days this time last year. This is good news for buyers as they have more time to see the homes they are interested in.

Inventory Levels

Inventory levels seem to be the new normal. There are 2,850 homes for sale, which is about the same it was last month. It’s also down about 38% from this time last year. Month’s Supply is another factor to consider. This refers to how many months it will take to sell all the current homes currently on the market. Most consider a balanced market, where buyers and sellers are on the same playing field, to be about 3-6 months supply. Currently, Northern Virginia has a month’s supply of homes for sale of 1.4; this is the same as the 5-year average. These numbers appear to be the new normal.

Many home owners are hesitant to sell their homes. They are unwilling to give up their 3-5% mortgage interest rates to buy another home at 7.5%, no matter the profit margin.

Bright MLS Buyer Demand Index

According to Bright MLS Home Demand Index, buyer demand in the Washington Metro Area (which includes Northern Virginia) remains “Slow”, the same as the previous month. The Bright MLS | T3 Home Demand Index measures and tracks consumer and real estate professional behavior related to shopping for real estate. They look at metrics such as views of homes online and in-person showings. Ratings are categorized into 5 score points: Limited (under 70 points), Slow (70-89), Steady (90-109), Moderate (110-129), and High demand (over 130).

This month. the highest ranking areas in Northern Virginia are: STEADY in Arlington (104); SLOW in Alexandria City (83); and LIMITED in Prince William County (69), Manassas City (67) and Falls Church (64).

What the Experts are Seeing

The good news of the market update for November 2023 is that home prices seem to holding steady and strong. When correctly priced, homes continue to sell for what sellers are asking. Multiple offers are no longer the norm. There are exceptions, however. When proper pricing and excellent condition meet, multiple offers are an advantage to homeowners.

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Mortgage Interest Rates

This is the new normal for now. The annual percentage rate on 30-year conventional mortgages hovers around 7.5%. The latest Consumer Price Index figures (used to measure inflation) were announced to be at 3.2%. This percentage shows change over time in the prices for a basket of consumer goods. The Federal Reserve has stated that they want to see the inflation figure down to 2%. The next Consumer Price Index report announcement is December 12, 2023 and the next Federal Reserve announcement is set for December 13, 2023.

Advice to Sellers

Home pricing and good condition remain crucial ingredients to ensure a smooth sale. If done properly, expect to get close to your original list price and go under contract in under 3 weeks.

Advice to Buyers

For the home shopper, the mortgage interest rates are lower than a month ago. Rates around 7.5% is the new norm. Most agree that Northern Virginia has a very strong real estate market grounded in its proximity to Washington DC, solid job market, great schools, and endless amenities. This means that home owners will see financial gains the longer they own a home in the area.

Bottom Line

The market update for November 2023 is all about STRONG and STEADY. This is our new normal. We’re here to help you decide on what is best for you.

Questions/Concerns? Please contact me.

Also feel free to compare this update with last month’s Market Update – October 2023.