January 2026 Market Update for Northern Virginia

The January 2026 market update for Northern Virginia real estate is already delivering meaningful insights for buyers, sellers, and investors. December 2025 data—combined with early January activity—points to a market that is stabilizing, becoming more balanced, and quietly gaining momentum as the spring season approaches.

Drawing from ShowingTime market statistics across the ten counties that make up the Northern Virginia real estate market, this January 2026 market update highlights the trends shaping decisions in the months ahead.

Home Prices Hold Steady in the January 2026 Market Update

The median sold price in December 2025 was $685,000, according to this January 2026 market update:

Down approximately 1% from November
Up 3.8% year-over-year

This modest seasonal dip is typical for winter months, while the year-over-year appreciation underscores the long-term strength of Northern Virginia real estate. Even as the market adjusts, home values continue to show resilience.

January 2026 market update takeaway: Seasonal slowdowns are not price collapses. Stable appreciation signals confidence heading into 2026.

Sales Activity Increases Despite Seasonal Slowdown

The January 2026 market update shows 2,130 homes sold in December, reflecting:

A 7.2% increase from November
A 1.4% increase from December 2024

This rise in closed sales suggests buyers are re-engaging earlier than usual. Improved mortgage rates and growing economic clarity are helping push hesitant buyers back into the market.

Days on Market Rise, Signaling a More Balanced Market

According to the January 2026 market update, homes averaged 35 days on market in December:

Up 6 days month-over-month
Up 10 days year-over-year

This shift confirms a slower, more deliberate market pace. Buyers are no longer rushing, and sellers must focus on pricing strategy, presentation, and negotiation.

January 2026 market update insight: A longer market time reflects balance—not weakness—and encourages more thoughtful transactions.

Inventory Growth Shapes the January 2026 Market Update

Inventory remains a defining theme in this January 2026 market update. At the end of December:

2,466 homes were actively listed
Inventory was 35% higher than last year
Down 25% from November due to seasonal listing pauses

Year-over-year inventory growth gives buyers more choice and puts pressure on sellers to compete effectively.

Negotiation Returns as a Key Trend in January 2026

One of the most telling indicators in this January 2026 market update is the sold-to-original-list-price ratio, which came in at 97.8%:

Down 0.2% from November
Down 1.2% from last year

This confirms a return to negotiation. Seller concessions, inspection contingencies, and pricing flexibility are once again part of everyday transactions.

January 2026 market update takeaway: Deals are getting done through collaboration rather than competition.

Inflation and Interest Rates Influence the January 2026 Market Update

Inflation trends remain central to buyer confidence. The most recent CPI reading showed inflation at 2.7%, easing concerns after months of hovering near 3%. This data played a role in the recent rate decision by the Federal Reserve, and markets continue watching closely.

Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6% in the January 2026 Market Update

One of the most encouraging developments in this January 2026 market update is mortgage interest rates dipping to approximately 5.88%. For much of 2025, rates stayed firmly in the mid-to-high 6% range.

Even small rate improvements significantly impact affordability and buyer confidence—especially for first-time and move-up buyers.

January 2026 Market Update Reveals Early Buyer Momentum

Early January activity has exceeded expectations. Showing requests, buyer inquiries, and appointments surged well ahead of the traditional spring season. New construction communities are drawing renewed attention, and builders are offering incentives to maintain momentum.

At the same time, resale sellers are adapting—accepting contingencies and negotiating terms that would have been rejected six to nine months ago.

January 2026 market update insight: The market is adjusting—not retreating.

A Refined Market Emerges in the January 2026 Market Update

This January 2026 market update confirms that Northern Virginia is no longer a strong seller’s market—but it is not a buyer’s market either. Instead, 2026 is shaping up as a refined, cooperative market, where success depends on preparation, pricing accuracy, and realistic expectations.

Buyers benefit from more options and negotiating power.
Sellers who adapt continue to sell successfully.
Well-positioned homes are still moving—even in a slower environment.

As more economic data is released and spring approaches, this January 2026 market update suggests one clear conclusion: momentum is building, and the year ahead is already taking on a great shape.

NEED HELP SELLING OR BUYING YOUR NEXT HOME? REACH OUT TODAY:

Please contact me.

Denise Fuller, Real Estate Specialist
Home Estate Realty Group / Coldwell Banker Realty Leesburg